UPDATE 1: Tear Sheet Part II: PCPD ‘25e FCF to Turn Positive On Niseko Ops, Development Project Sales; Needs Refi, Asset Sales For HKD 8.4B ‘26 Maturity Wall; Due ‘26s at Mid-80s Implies Fixed Assets Valued at Impaired Cost Despite Improving Hospitality Segment

UPDATE 1: 2:27 a.m. ET 5/16/2024:  Author: Leon Leong, Senior Credit Analyst Relevant Documents: Excel Model, Tear Sheet $100M 5.125% Tap Issuance Notes Due 2026 Supplemental Offering Circular (OC) FY’23 Annual Report PCPD Tear Sheet Part I   Reorg Asia Highlights: Reorg estimates that Pacific Century Premium Development Limited’s, or PCPD’s, free cash flow, or FCF, would turn positive in 2025 and 2026, driven by sales and pre-sales of development projects and a recovery in its Japan hospitality-related EBITDA to around HKD 120 million ($15.4 million) annually as tourist arrivals to Hanazono, Niseko rebound post pandemic; Should financing conditions remain unconducive to a refinancing of the $800 million, 5.125% guaranteed notes due June 2026 (PCPD’s only USD issuance), the company’s HKD 8.4 billion maturity wall in the same year would require asset sales of operating properties, accelerated sales/ pre-sales of development projects, and/ or liquidity support from controlling shareholder Richard Li; The mid May 2024 indication of the due ‘26s in the mid-80s have priced in a 15% discount to Pacific Century Place, Jakarta, while other fixed assets are valued at cost or impaired cost despite improving operations, among various combinations; PCPD’s two Niseko hotels – Park Hyatt Hanazono, Niseko[...]