Octus on Credit: Private credit deals on the rise–what might be in store for the rest of 2025?

Paola Aurisicchio, Senior Reporter, Private Credit

A rising tide lifts all boats. Overall deal stats show that the resurgence of traditional lenders in 2024, after years of absence, did not significantly impact the private credit market. Octus’ Private Credit Dashboard shows the number of US private credit transactions increased to 493 in the fourth quarter of 2024 from 341 in the first quarter driven by a resurgence of M&A activity in the back half of the year.  

With 2025 off to a promising start, M&A activity looks set for an uptick, with private credit financiers poised to reap the benefits. The Octus Americas news team has been reporting on the processes developing for healthcare technology companies HealthEdge and Modernizing Medicine, which could end up in the private credit pipeline.

Companies seeking to raise debt financing have been willing to pay up for the flexibility and speed offered by the private market in their efforts to clinch market share away from bank lenders. Pricing on private credit deals averaged around SOFR+ 522 bps in the fourth quarter of 2024, down from 590 bps in the first quarter of 2024, according to Octus’ Private Credit Dashboard.

But with the Trump administration looking to ease capital requirements and leveraged lending guidelines on traditional lenders, banks could stage a comeback.

 A $4.8 billion unitranche provided by lenders to UK fintech company Finastra – one of the largest private loans in the market – is back in play and it might be a good test. The Vista Equity Partners-backed company is eyeing a refi and will be exploring both the private and the public route. 

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