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White Paper

The matured private credit mandate

$3B in distressed loans. A maturity wall approaching.

Private credit’s first real stress test is here.

 

The private credit market didn’t just survive 2025, it matured. US large-cap activity jumped 37%. European direct lending surged 13%. The secondary market hit $20B.

 

But the sectors attracting the most capital are now showing the most strain, BDC nonaccruals are climbing, and the 2021 vintage is approaching its maturity wall.

 

This report maps where the opportunity is and where the risk is building.

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What's inside

Private credit’s first real stress test is underway. We tracked deal activity, nonaccrual data, spread trends and restructuring outcomes across private credit markets in 2025 and early 2026.

Here’s what the data shows:

Where deal flow is concentrating — and where stress is following: Healthcare led US direct lending at 19% of volume, but the sectors attracting the most capital are showing the most strain.

The coming maturity wall and what BDC nonaccruals are already telling you: Over $3B in nonaccrual loans mature through 2027. With BDC distress climbing and the 2021 COVID vintage approaching, this report maps exactly where the pressure points are building.

The growth mandate – AI infrastructure, jumbo deals, and the secondary market surge: Private lenders are projected to deploy $800B into data center construction over two years. Meanwhile, the secondaries market hit $20B in 2025 — on track for $50B.

If you’re a portfolio manager or analyst at a buy-side firm or investment bank, this is the private credit data you need for 2026.

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