Octus on Credit: Instability might push investors and policymakers to give China another look

“When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro.” Hunter S. Thompson, Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas

One of the stranger twists in today’s volatile global economy is that instability might push investors and policymakers to give China another look.

Tariff threats, trade disputes, and erratic U.S. policy have shattered the credibility of the post-WWII free trade order. The United States, once seen as the world’s economic anchor, is increasingly viewed as unpredictable and protectionist. That perception is reshaping global trade, and fast.

Governments and companies aren’t waiting around. They’re diversifying partnerships, rerouting supply chains, and hedging against political risk. Nowhere is this shift more evident than in Asia, where China is stepping up to fill the void.

President Xi Jinping is seizing the moment. He is positioning China as a steady and stable trading partner and the region’s economic anchor, in contrast with the perceived unreliability of the U.S. His recent diplomatic efforts to strengthen relationships in Southeast Asia, coupled with strategic infrastructure and technology investments in countries like Vietnam and Malaysia, signal China’s intention to bolster its influence. Additionally, trade talks with the EU and discussions on pricing standards for Chinese goods further emphasize these efforts.  

Not long ago, few would’ve put China on a list of viable investment destinations. A collapsing property market, rigid COVID policies, and rising U.S. hostility had many investors heading for the exits. But with the U.S. and other major economies now seen as increasingly erratic, China’s pitch is landing again.

Anecdotal evidence suggests that family offices and institutional investors are starting to shift capital—away from the U.S., toward Europe, the Middle East, and yes, even China. That rebalancing is still early, but it’s real.

China hasn’t suddenly become risk-free. But in a world where geopolitical certainty is scarce, Beijing’s message is resonating: if Washington won’t lead, China will.

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