Global Tariff Roundup Week Ended July 11: Highlighting Octus’ Market, Sector and Company Coverage

 

Don’t miss our tariffs daily digests by region, which compile all stories and third-party news related to tariffs HERE.
 

President Donald Trump officially extended the pause on higher “reciprocal tariffs” until Aug. 1 and began firing out letters to dozens of countries threatening new tariff rates. Trump also suggested that he is considering imposing blanket reciprocal tariffs of 15% or 20% on remaining countries, up from the current 10% baseline.

Amid the extension and volley of tariff letters, the S&P 500 hit a record high on July 10 but retreated early today following Trump’s threat to increase “fentanyl tariffs” on Canada to 35%. Canada was exempt from the president’s April 2 “Liberation Day” tariff order but is subject to an earlier 25% tariff on most goods not compliant with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USMCA, levied over fentanyl trafficking concerns.
 

Trump’s new tariff rates for major Asian economies are largely consistent with those initially announced on April 2, including 25% tariffs for Japan, South Korea and Malaysia, 36% for Thailand and 32% for Indonesia. Trump did not publish a letter to India, with negotiations on an interim agreement with the United States ongoing.

Trump also sent a scathing letter to Brazil threatening to increase tariffs to 50% from 10% over nontrade issues including the Brazilian government’s prosecution of former President Jair Bolsonaro.

Trump repeatedly threatened to impose an additional 10% tariff on BRICS nations – referring to the intergovernmental organization that consists of Brazil, India, Russia, China, South Africa and other countries aligned with the bloc. The BRICS held a summit last weekend and issued a joint statement criticizing the U.S. tariffs and other policies.

As of publication, Trump has not disclosed a letter to the European Union, although he warned on July 10 that such a letter could come soon. The Trump administration and the EU have reportedly been making progress on negotiations this week.

Following Trump’s announcement last week of a 20% tariff deal with Vietnam, top officials for the Southeast Asian nation were surprised as they had been pushing for a levy in the 10% to 15% range, Bloomberg reported.

Trade negotiations triggered by the reciprocal tariffs are likely to be complicated by existing and pending sector-specific tariffs that the Trump administration is considering under section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act.

Trump this week said he planned to impose a 50% copper tariff starting Aug. 1 and floated a 12-to-18-month delay for upcoming pharmaceutical tariffs. The United States has already levied duties on steel, aluminum and automobiles and is also investigating tariffs for semiconductors, aircraft, trucks and timber.

China on July 8, in the form of an op-ed on the official People’s Daily, warned the Trump administration against reigniting trade tension by restoring tariffs after a 90-day pause on higher tariffs expires Aug. 12. China also threatened to retaliate against nations that strike deals with the United States to cut China out of supply chains.

Amid renewed trade tensions, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Kuala Lumpur today. According to Reuters, Wang has been fierce in his criticism of the United States in Kuala Lumpur and told Malaysia’s foreign minister that the U.S. tariffs were “typical unilateral bullying behavior” that no country should support or agree with.

Indonesia, the world’s second-largest wheat buyer, signed a memorandum of understanding with the United States to buy more wheat starting from this year through 2030 – a deal valued at about $1.25 billion, Bloomberg reported. Sri Lanka Treasury Secretary Harshana Suriyapperuma said that the nation will continue negotiations with the United States for future reduction in tariffs, calling the lower-than-proposed 30% new rate “a good start,” Bloomberg reported.
 

 

The U.S. primary market was active this week, with several sizable deals launching or preparing to launch while $11 billion of loans and $6.4 billion of bonds priced. Inflows to loans this week were the greatest in five months, at $1.35 billion, according to a report by Bank of America. Inflows to high yield, meanwhile, waned to $530 million from $1.17 billion.

“The market has adjusted to being really open one day, then so-so the next,” said a leveraged finance banker this week about the ebbs and flows of the primary market this summer.

A high-yield bond investor this week similarly noted that the days when the primary market is open, deals are getting roughly 5x oversubscribed, even for some riskier-rated credits, speaking to the high demand from buyside participants for new issues.

In Europe, investors were cautiously waiting for progress in trade negotiations with the U.S., as the EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic said “satisfactory progress” had been made toward a deal that could be finalized in the coming days.

With the escalating trade tensions, European equity markets closed lower today. The pan-European STOXX 600 fell around 1%, Germany’s DAX and the U..K’s FTSE also retreated from record highs, declining 0.8% and 0.4%, respectively, reflecting investor nervousness ahead of a potentially pivotal weekend in EU-US trade relationship. For the week overall, the Dax gained 1.7% while FTSE 100 and European STOXX 600 indices were both up by around 1.2%.

Year to date, equity markets have performed quite strongly despite the lackluster European macroeconomic outlook, a decoupling that leads to sustainability concerns. Year to date, the Stoxx 600 index is up by 8.6%, outperforming the S&P 500 index, which is up by 6.8% on the same time frame.

Similar nervousness was also seen in the fixed income market, as investors awaited clarity on potential trade measures after Trump signaled that the EU would soon receive a letter outlining the specific tariff rates it will face. The yield on the 10-year German Bund climbed above 2.68%, its highest level in nearly two months, while the 2-year Bund widened to 1.90% today.

The primary market continues its strong momentum, with three debut issuers – the fallen angel automaker Nissan, food ingredients supplier Nexture and ice cream manufacturer Froneri – tapping into the European high-yield investor base.

Our primary analysis on Nissan, Froneri and Nexture can be found HERE, HERE and HERE.

Meanwhile, U.K. supermarket chain Morrisons priced an £800 million equivalent offering of 5.5-year bonds, denominated in both sterling and euros. This follows recent sterling-denominated deals from True Potential and Arqiva over the past two weeks.

In the secondary markets, the yield on the BofA Euro IG Corporate Index was wider, at 3.03% compared with 2.97%, whereas the yield on the ICE BofA High yield index tightened by 8 bps to 5.05%.

CLOs

Axa Investment Managers launched a new European CLO via BNP Paribas on July 8, according to market sources. The deal, named Adagio EUR CLO XIII, is expected to price next week. Its portfolio is about 30% ramped up to get to a target par amount of €400 million.

Guidance for the triple-A tranche is in the area of Euribor+133 bps, within the range of 132 to 134 bps where other long-dated new issues have priced in the past two weeks.

CVC also launched a new deal via Natixis this month, with triple-A notes marked as subject, sources said.

European CLO activity is set to remain busy for the rest of the month, with market participants having shrugged off news around the postponement of tariffs on the United States’ trading partners until Aug. 1.

“We’re cracking on with the pipeline as is,” a syndicate banker told Octus. “I’d say there’s probably more managers who want to [price] before people go on holiday, versus Donald Trump’s rhetoric.”
 

Octus’ chartbook analysis on July 7 found that the G-spreads of six Macau gaming issuers – Studio City, Melco, Sands China, MGM China, SJM Holdings and Wynn Macau – widened post-“Liberation Day” (April 2) but retraced substantially in the second quarter of 2025, supported by stable fundamentals and limited supply, and remained near post-Covid-19 lows. U.S. dollar bond issuance remained muted in the first half of the year as issuers continued to deleverage and refinanced with lower-cost Hong Kong dollar loans.

Gross gaming revenue rose modestly in the first five months of 2025, prompting the Macau government to cut 2025’s target in June. While premium mass led growth, VIP and base mass segments lagged. Visitation remained strong, but per-capita spending and length of stay were weak. The sector’s profitability remains under pressure due to flat gross gaming revenue and rising costs, and deleveraging is expected to slow in 2025.
 

India’s construction material solutions company Infra.Market, registered as Hella Infra Market Pvt. Ltd., plans to hold a road show in Hong Kong and Singapore in the week of July 14 to gauge investors’ interest for its planned maiden U.S. dollar bond issue. This follows Octus’ May report that the Thane, Maharashtra state-based building material manufacturer had restarted works on the planned bond issue as part of the market recovery from the volatility caused by the initial April tariff announcement. The company had initially communicated to investors its plan for a debut dollar bond in November 2024; the plan was then postponed after receiving tepid responses. The company is targeting a $350 million to $400 million issue of three-year bonds and proceeds are to refinance its costly amortizing loans. HSBC, Emirates NBD, Deutsche Bank, Barclays and DBS have been mandated for the planned bond.
 

 

At Home Group: The debtors filed their first proposed plan of reorganization and disclosure statement, which includes a unique “Tariff Event” plan effective date condition set forth in the RSA and DIP. If the U.S. government announces higher import tariffs on jurisdictions that are material to the debtors’ business after the petition date, the debtors must within five days provide DIP lenders with a revised business plan “limited solely to the projected tariff impacts to Adjusted EBITDA that would result from the announced tariff increases (otherwise holding constant all other assumptions from the Business Plan).” If the tariff revisions result in declines in adjusted EBITDA of greater than $13 million for FY 2026 or greater than $15 million for FY 2027, the plan would not go effective.

Helen of Troy Ltd.: The housewares, health and wellness, and beauty products company reported a decrease in its first-quarter 2025 results, with total consolidated net sales revenue falling 10.82% to $371.66 million, primarily attributed to tariff-related impacts, which accounted for approximately 8 points of the 10.82% decline. The company’s EBITDA also decreased significantly to negative $392.65 million, while adjusted EBITDA fell 51.27% to $25.52 million.

CEC Entertainment: The operator of the Chuck E. Cheese franchise is considering refinancing its 2026 senior secured notes, potentially with private credit lenders. In April, Octus reported that a $660 million high-yield bond for CEC Entertainment to refinance its 2026 debt struggled to draw investor interest because of concerns regarding consumer spending and tariff-induced market volatility after Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcements.