Democratic Blowout in Midterms Sparks Volatility in Equity Markets as Investors Digest AI Regulation Outlook

Join Octus on Thursday, Nov. 12, at 10 a.m. for a webinar on the aftermath of the U.S. midterm elections and what the results mean for credit markets, which you can register for HERE. Additionally, Octus will hold a webinar on Nov. 19 at 11 a.m. on AI Infrastructure, which you can register for HERE.

In the midterm elections on Nov. 3 in the United States, Democrats took sizable majorities in the House and the Senate. Additionally, Democrats flipped governorships in Texas, Georgia, Ohio, Nevada and Iowa and made inroads in state legislatures. Many successful candidates support moratoriums or restrictions on data center development. Voters also passed local ballot measures banning or restricting data center development in dozens of local jurisdictions.

Equity markets initially responded positively to the results, with both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq composite posting sizable gains on Nov. 4. However, there was a sharp selloff in AI-related stocks on Nov. 5, amid concerns about restrictions on data center development and more oversight of the broader AI industry, which dragged both indexes down to their worst day since the “Liberation Day” tariff announcement in April 2025. Equities partially recouped their declines today.

Investors fleeing to safety pushed Treasury yields down, with the yield on the 10-year closing at 4.84% on Nov. 5, down from 4.97% on Nov. 3. The 10-year Treasury largely held its gains on Nov. 6 after the release of nonfarm payroll for October, which showed that the U.S. added 165,000 jobs during the month, significantly outperforming expectations. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1%.

Any federal legislation restricting data center development or regulating AI companies in the new Congress would require signoff from President Donald Trump, who has historically favored a more hands-off approach. Lawmakers at the state and local level have more opportunities to slow specific data center projects and impose AI regulations. The election results also suggest that data centers and AI policy could play a central role in the 2028 presidential election and beyond.

Next week, the Senate will return for its “lame duck” session and could vote on advancing a bipartisan permitting reform bill that would overhaul the federal environmental review and permitting process for energy and infrastructure projects and set a binding nationwide requirement for data centers to cover associated grid costs. The vote could be a barometer for bipartisan lawmaking activity for the next two years. It remains to be seen how the package is received in the House, with House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., this week saying the bill “falls short” and that his caucus would not rubber-stamp the legislation without more input.

The election results could also lead to increased oversight of the financial services industry, with Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., poised to chair the Senate Banking Committee. Private credit lenders and private equity firms are among the many topics that Warren has scrutinized over the past year. Rep. Maxine Waters, D-Calif., is seeking to return as chair of the House Financial Services Committee, but she faces a challenge from a junior lawmaker.

On healthcare, Democrats are likely to push to reverse the cuts to Affordable Care Act subsidies and Medicaid that Republicans passed in 2025 as part of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Healthcare spending could be a key topic in upcoming government funding negotiations.

Current funding for the government is set to expire Dec. 11. It remains to be seen if lawmakers will agree to a short-term funding patch until early 2027, when the new Congress is seated. If they do not, there could be a government shutdown. Defense spending for the war with Iran could also be a major point of contention in funding negotiations and in a pending defense policy bill. Congress and the president will also need to agree to raise the debt ceiling before U.S. government debt reaches the current limit of $41.1 trillion at some point in 2027.

Democrats could also try to pass legislation reining in Trump’s tariffs, although the required two-thirds approval from both chambers to override the president’s veto remains a high bar that would require significant buy-in from congressional Republicans. Democrats also appear poised to investigate the president’s tariff policies, trade deals and tariff exemptions.
 

Matteo Clarkson-Maciel, a lawyer on Cassels’ liability management and special situations team, and formerly of Kirkland & Ellis, Simpson Thacher and Willkie in London, has written “Liability Management Exercises: Law and Practice,” one of the first books on LMEs. He gave an interview for this week’s Special Sits and Distressed Weekly. Aimed at younger lawyers and investors, the book examines LME transactions through 2025 across the U.S., U.K. and Canada, with more than 20 contributors. Clarkson-Maciel told Octus that LMEs are not a U.S.-only phenomenon but a tool for a universal economic problem, and he calls restructuring, LMEs in particular, “the ultimate puzzle,” since practitioners build it from first principles with pieces missing.
 

• JetBlue – Publicly listed low-cost airline JetBlue has had conversations with Davis Polk about a restructuring contingency as fuel headwinds and ex-fuel unit cost pressure threaten profitability and liquidity. White & Case is consulting the company on general corporate matters while a minority ad hoc group of creditors has organized with Hogan Lovells Cadwalader to oppose a non-pro-rata cooperation agreement circulated by a majority group advised by Akin Gump and PJT Partners. Octus’ coverage of JetBlue is HERE.
   
• Data Center BWIC – A roughly $500 million list of bids wanted in competition of first lien data center loans is being offered to leveraged finance investors, days after the midterm elections left participants expecting a slowdown in the AI infrastructure buildout. The sale spans a dozen borrowers, with bids due Nov. 19 at 2 p.m. ET. It includes $175 million tied to Blackstone-backed QTS, $100 million tied to Vantage Data Centers, $50 million tied to Edged Compute, $25 million tied to CyrusOne and $25 million tied to Oracle’s Project Jupiter. Octus coverage of AI Infrastructure is HERE.
   
• Cornerstone OnDemand – Clearlake-backed software company Cornerstone OnDemand is working with PJT Partners as investment banker ahead of its 2028 first lien maturity. Simpson Thacher is company counsel. A Gibson Dunn lender co-op, reported in May, has a carve-out premium for some members. Octus’ coverage of Cornerstone OnDemand is HERE.
   

Primary activity stayed subdued this week, as the Democratic sweep in the midterm elections revived concerns that data centers could face tighter regulation, complicating the outlook for AI infrastructure financing. Software borrowers began to reemerge in the bond market, as Cloud Software Group priced a $2 billion bond at 10%, wider than the initial high-9% area, and sources said the deal was 3x oversubscribed. Adam Schauer, portfolio manager on Barings’ high-yield team, said the recent volatility feels like a “healthy reset” and that the next few weeks could be very busy if volatility subsides and the rates market behaves.
 

• The Baldwin Group – The insurance broker launched a $2 billion loan, offered at SOFR+350 bps and 99 OID, and a $300 million delayed-draw term loan to finance the $7.7 billion take-private by Sequence Holdings and tech billionaire Michael Dell’s family office DFO Management, with commitments due Nov. 12. Octus’ coverage of The Baldwin Group is HERE.
   
• Cloud Software Group Inc. – Vista Equity Partners- and Elliott Investment Management-backed enterprise software company Cloud Software Group priced a $2 billion 7.5-year first lien senior secured notes offering to partly refinance its 9% second lien notes due 2029. The notes priced at 10%, wider than the initial high-9% area, drew about three times oversubscription and broke at 101.5 for a 9.6% yield. Octus’ coverage of Cloud Software Group is HERE.
   
• Argentum AI – Citi is reportedly in advanced discussions to lead a $2 billion debt financing deal for Argentum AI to support its graphics processing unit purchases, although the transaction is not yet guaranteed. Other banks, including Cantor Fitzgerald, are also involved in the financing talks, with the debt backed by take-or-pay contracts with non-investment-grade offtakers. Argentum AI, founded by Andrew Sobko, is an independent neocloud with significant global data center exclusivity and substantial contracted revenue. The company is expected to raise up to $10 billion in debt over multiple transactions in the coming months, continuing a trend of AI chip purchasing financings funded by debt. Octus coverage of Argentum is HERE.
   

Private equity sponsors are leaning on continuation vehicles, larger funds and mega take-privates this week as hold periods stretch. The Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate at 3.75% to 4% on Oct. 28, and longer holds have already driven more single-asset continuation vehicles. The largest firms are raising bigger funds to chase larger, more concentrated deals, while the pipeline shows that the latest mega take-private pairs a bank syndication with a committed private credit backstop.
 

• Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals – The biopharmaceutical company completed a refinancing of its $400 million senior secured credit facility with Sixth Street, retiring the prior facility (which carried a 15% rate) at a $68 million discount and replacing it with a new $400 million term loan due November 2031 priced at three-month SOFR+550 bps. Octus’ coverage of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals is HERE.
   
• Apex Service Partners – The Alpine Investors-backed provider of residential HVAC, plumbing and electrical services was rolled into a $3.4 billion single-asset continuation vehicle in 2023, and Apollo Funds announced in May that it will acquire a minority interest in the Tampa, Fla.-based company, which operates 75 local brands across 46 states. Octus’ coverage of Apex Service Partners is HERE.
   
• ADT Inc. – Joshua Kushner’s Thrive Holdings is seeking roughly $9.6 billion of bank debt for its $15.3 billion take-private of the home security company, keeping as a backstop a committed $9.65 billion private credit package led by Apollo Global Management that includes a $6.25 billion term loan, a $2.7 billion delayed-draw term loan and a $700 million revolving credit facility, with pricing not yet defined and closing expected in the first quarter of 2027. Octus’ coverage of ADT is HERE.
   

Borrower-friendly terms advanced and lender protections eroded in the third quarter, according to analysis from the Octus Covenants team this week. Octus loan scores for U.S. broadly syndicated deals deteriorated in the third quarter of 2026, with weak or very weak deals rising to roughly 57% of the market from 45% in the second quarter. The average score rose to 3.62 from 3.51 on the 1 to 5 scale, where 5 is the least protective for lenders. Sponsor-backed baskets edged higher over the last four quarters as nonsponsor terms converged on sponsor levels, according to Octus’ Deal Term Analytics database, while broadly drafted “uncontrolled event” carve-outs that shift AI-related disruption risk to lenders are spreading in Europe but have yet to surface in U.S. loans.
 

• ADT – Investment firm Thrive Holdings agreed to take ADT Inc. private in an all-cash deal valuing the company at an enterprise value of about $15.3 billion, expected to close in the first quarter of 2027 with Apollo Global Management funds providing preferred equity and debt financing. The deal will likely trigger a change of control and an event of default under ADT’s term loan A, term loan B and revolving credit facility, though the merger agreement points to a refinancing. A 101% change-of-control offer on the senior secured notes would apply only if two ratings agencies lower their ratings. Octus’ coverage of ADT is HERE.
   
• Cloud Software Group – The company is issuing $2 billion of new senior secured notes due 2034 that, together with cash on hand, will fund the purchase of up to $2 billion of its 9% senior secured second lien notes, and the preliminary offering memorandum earned an Octus Bond Score of 3.79 on the 1 to 5 scale, in the weak band. Octus’ coverage of Cloud Software Group is HERE.
   

CLO primary activity held up this week despite volatility around the U.S. midterm elections, with $4.3 billion of new issuance pricing globally. BTG Pactual priced its debut U.S. CLO, becoming the first U.S. manager with a Latin America-headquartered parent, and the triple-A notes of BTG CLO 2026-1 priced at a blended 136.73 bps, slightly more than 10-bps wide of the weekly average for five-year reinvestment paper, reflecting the typical premium for new managers. Secondary trading on bids wanted in competition lists skewed toward the upper mezzanine, with U.S. single-A paper offered at $231 million, the most of any week this year. Overall volume rose to $1.76 billion from $1.6 billion in the U.S. and to €336 million from €211 million in Europe.
 

• U.S. CLOs – Healthcare sector exposure in U.S. broadly syndicated CLOs held steady at $107.77 billion, or 12.18% of total collateral, in the third quarter, with triple‑C exposure shrinking as credit quality improved. Democratic wins in this week’s midterm elections raised investor hopes for healthcare‑focused legislative relief starting in 2027, including possible delays to One Big Beautiful Bill Act provider tax provisions. Octus’ coverage of the CLO healthcare sector is HERE.
   
• Allica Bank – U.K. challenger bank Allica Bank is preparing a new SRT transaction tied to a portfolio of income-producing real estate valued from £500 million to £750 million. The deal is expected to be a static cash securitization of commercial mortgages, structured with a 0% to 15% first-loss tranche. Allica’s commercial mortgage book stood at £2.4 billion at the end of 2025, up 35% from a year earlier. On a £500 million portfolio, the transaction would equate to about 21% of that book. Octus’ coverage of Allica Bank is HERE.
   
• SRT Issuance – SRT issuance reached a record $10.1 billion in the third quarter, marking a 38% increase year over year, with total issuance for the first nine months of 2026 at $28.2 billion, up 28% from the previous year. European banks were the primary drivers of this growth, accounting for 79% of third-quarter issuance, while U.K. and Canadian banks also showed significant activity. In contrast, U.S. bank issuance lagged, with only $3.5 billion issued through September. Large corporate transactions, including high-yield and leveraged loans, dominated the asset classes backing SRTs, while deals backed by small and medium-sized enterprise portfolios and infrastructure finance also saw increased activity. Octus’ SRT coverage is HERE.

Municipal credit stress this week concentrated in healthcare and project finance, where borrowers leaned on forbearance, asset sales and court protection to buy time. Missed payments, going-concern warnings and a new chapter 11 filing kept pressure on hospital, senior living and specialty healthcare credits, while trustees pushed for tighter protection of bondholder collateral. Primary supply stayed heavy, with October issuance totaling $51 billion against a recent October average of $48 billion, according to Barclays Research. This week’s calendar is lighter at $6.8 billion after the Federal Reserve held rates unchanged last week.
 

• Brightline West – The high-speed rail developer, formally DesertXpress Enterprises LLC, reached an Oct. 29 agreement with a majority of bondholders that gives it until Jan. 12, 2027, to pay the purchase price and interest that came due Nov. 2 on its $1.802 billion of California- and Nevada-issued Series 2025B bonds, which carried a mandatory tender date of Nov. 2. The amendments also push the equity contribution condition deadline to Jan. 12 from Nov. 2, with the condition requiring the company to raise at least $400 million through common equity or capital contributions, according to a Nov. 2 event notice filed on EMMA. Octus’ coverage of Brightline West is HERE.
   
• Chesapeake Bay Conference Center – The operator of the Hyatt Regency Chesapeake Bay Golf Resort, Spa and Marina received a going-concern warning in its FY 2026 audit from SC&H after an amended forbearance agreement lapsed, leaving the entire $182.9 million principal balance and accrued interest immediately due. The borrower defaulted after failing to extend the forbearance agreement, which expired June 30. Octus’ coverage of Chesapeake Bay Conference Center is HERE.
   
• Proton International Delray – Bond trustee UMB Bank disclosed on Nov. 2 that the Nov. 1 senior payment on $81.3 million of original Series 2017 bonds, issued by the Public Finance Authority for the operator of the South Florida Proton Therapy Institute, has not been paid, and that no subordinate payments will be made because the borrower has not deposited funds. A Florida state court is weighing a proposed $16.25 million sale of center assets to Tenet Healthcare Corp., the facility’s landlord, which UMB named as a defendant in its July 13 foreclosure complaint in the Fifteenth Judicial Circuit Court of Florida in Palm Beach County, filed at the direction of holders of more than 50% of the senior bonds. Octus’ coverage of Proton International Delray is HERE.
   

This week’s Special Sits Weekly laments the evolution of EBITDA addbacks and how the recent surge of AI related debt includes adjustments not just for EBITDA but events-of-default definitions too. More broadly, the ratio of CCC index spreads to the broader high-yield spread hit a record 3.3x in October against a 30-year median of 1.8x, with CCC spreads at 1,116 bps as of Nov. 3, according to JunkBondInvestor. The pressure reached distressed funds, as the Arini Credit Master Fund lost 12.1% in October for a year-to-date loss of 26% amid reported sales of $800 million to $2 billion of positions and CDS unwinds.
 

• Verkor – The Macquarie- and Meridiam-backed French vehicle battery maker has hired A&O Shearman for talks with lenders led by the European Investment Bank (represented by Linklaters) after a technical covenant breach, having announced more than €1.3 billion of green financing in May 2024 for its first gigafactory in Dunkirk and more than €3 billion of total financing across the gigafactory and its innovation centre. Octus’ coverage of Verkor is HERE.
   
• Orion – The New York-listed Luxembourg carbon black producer is struggling to generate cash and deleverage ahead of refinancing more than €804 million-equivalent of debt due in 2028, including a €300 million term loan, a $300 million term loan and a €350 million revolving credit facility all due in September 2028, as costs and feedstock volatility tied to the Iran war weigh on a business dependent on crude oil-derived raw materials, making the first half of 2027 the key window to show an earnings recovery. Octus’ coverage of Orion is HERE.
   
• Thames Water – Octus examines the U.K. water utility’s creditor‑led recapitalization plan after nearly 18 months of negotiations with regulator Ofwat, arguing the sticking point is less about financial terms than the regulatory relief creditors are seeking given Thames’ status as a special case. Octus’ coverage of Thames Water is HERE.
   

European primary activity was subdued this week, with only a handful of small bond and loan deals, as investors absorbed Democratic wins in the U.S. midterm elections and the assumption that the turnover in the U.S. would slow data center construction. AI-adjacent euro debt sold off, and Brent crude futures fell to about $90 per barrel from above $100 as recently as last week. The iTraxx Europe Crossover spread tightened about 13 bps to 314.20 bps on the morning of Nov. 6, London time, from 325.77 bps at the close a week earlier.
 

• CoreWeave – The AI neocloud’s €2 billion 8.5% senior unsecured notes due 2032 dropped about three points on Nov. 5, as names tied to the data center buildout led a U.S. equity selloff, while SoftBank’s €500 million senior unsecured notes due 2030 have fallen more than two points since the U.S. election. Octus’ coverage of CoreWeave is HERE.
   
• Virgin Media O2 – The company’s bonds rallied by as much as three points on Nov. 3 before giving up the gains after third-quarter results, in which it pledged about £800 million of annualized cost savings by 2029 (above press reports in September), halted its fiber upgrade program and began reviewing shareholder distributions, including a previous plan for £200 million. Octus’ coverage of Virgin Media O2 is HERE.
   
• Paprec – The French family-owned recycling and waste management group priced a €300 million tap of its existing €525 million 6% green senior secured notes due 2031 at 101.25 for a yield-to-maturity of 5.705%, upsizing twice from €150 million to fund its acquisition of Marius Pedersen’s Czech Republic and Slovakia operations, with LTM EBITDA of €551 million and net leverage of 3.3x as of June 30. Octus’ coverage of Paprec is HERE.
   

Adam Willmott, co-head of origination at Colesco Capital, said in this week’s Private Credit Review that investment across water, power, rail and other critical infrastructure, much of it tied to electrification, is feeding interest that spans mid-cap and large-cap deals. That appetite is holding even as margins across the broader U.K. direct lending market widened to 571 bps over the benchmark in the second quarter of 2026 from 533 bps in the first quarter and 514 bps in the fourth quarter of 2025, according to Octus’ PCDO data. This week’s deal pipeline highlights several buyout and refinancing deals across various sectors.
 

• Efor Group – Blackstone, Apollo and its new European Credit Co. platform are providing a €330 million unitranche financing at about 5.5x the French life sciences consultancy’s €60 million EBITDA, priced at 475 bps over the reference rate, to back PAI Partners’ roughly €900 million enterprise value acquisition of the business from founder Mathieu Roger and mid-cap firm Raise Investissement, sources said. Octus’ coverage of Efor Group is HERE.
   
• Applegreen – The motorway service area operator, backed by sponsor Blackstone Infrastructure Partners, priced a €120 million fungible add‑on to its euro term loan B maturing January 2032, with proceeds going to the balance sheet for general corporate purposes. The cov‑lite tranche priced at Euribor+450 bps and par with Barclays and HSBC as bookrunners, bringing the pro forma tranche size to €655 million. Octus’ coverage of Applegreen is HERE.
   
• Fruity Line – Rabobank is set to initiate the sale of Dutch fresh juice producer Fruity Line in the first quarter of 2027, with the company being marketed off an EBITDA of approximately €25 million. Gilde Equity Management, which partnered with Fruity Line’s founders in 2016, has been exploring strategic options for the company. Meanwhile, the auction of another Dutch juice company, Riedel, was paused because of complaints about misleading sustainability claims. Fruity Line, founded in 2008 and headquartered in Ochten, the Netherlands, produces over 100 million bottles of fresh juices and smoothies annually for distribution across more than 26 European countries. Octus’ coverage of Fruity Line is HERE.
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Lenders ceded more ground in European documentation Octus reported this week, as borrower-friendly terms advanced across loans and bonds. “Uncontrolled event” provisions now carve force majeure-type disruptions, including AI-driven impacts, out of events of default and add matching EBITDA adjustments, a reversal of the historical material adverse change clause. In high-yield bonds, “ratio-not-worse” leverage tests rose to 22% of third-quarter 2026 deals from 13% over the prior four quarters, while day-1 headroom under ratio-based baskets kept expanding.
 

• Uncontrolled event provisions – Across several recent European leveraged loans, the clauses stay grace periods or exclude affected defaults entirely (some preserve defaults for nonpayment and insolvency), are not time-limited and increasingly add catch-all language for any event beyond the borrower’s control, while AI-related EBITDA addbacks are typically uncapped and lack independent verification, letting a struggling borrower keep covenant flexibility as lenders lose intervention rights. Octus’ coverage of uncontrolled events is HERE.
   
• European High-Yield Bonds – Across year-to-date high-yield bond deals, 40% offered day-one headroom under ratio-based restricted payment baskets (up from 29% in 2025) and 82% did so for subordinated debt repayment baskets (up from 44%), with senior secured leverage tests now governing 59% of the latter, while caps on cost savings and synergies addbacks rose to 61% of sponsor-backed deals from 52% over the trailing four quarters after investor pushback forced concessions at InPost and Intertek. Octus’ coverage of European high-yield bond covenants is HERE.
   

Stress at one state-backed conglomerate spread through China’s credit markets this week, as an offshore selloff of Zhuhai Huafa Group’s bonds became a domestic liquidity scare before the Zhuhai city government pledged support. Distressed and special situations borrowers elsewhere in Asia leaned on private capital, with Indian promoters negotiating structured debt at returns of 16% to 17% to refinance or fund share purchases. Weaker investor sentiment toward AI infrastructure deals also began to weigh on financings, as a Singapore data center operator’s planned loan expansion was reported on hold as recently as Oct. 28.
 

• Zhuhai Huafa Group – The Zhuhai municipal government came out in support of the city-owned conglomerate on Nov. 4 after 10 days of market panic. A city official said it has deployed more than CNY 40 billion (about $5.9 billion at today’s exchange rate) and plans to mobilize a further CNY 70 billion, backed by asset sales to Gree Group and Zhuhai Transportation, a board overhaul and CICC’s appointment as financial advisor on a debt resolution plan; the group still faces CNY 1 billion of 3.8% medium term notes due Nov. 17 and CNY 400 million of 4.3% notes puttable Nov. 24. The real test comes in 2027, when CNY 46 billion of public bonds across Huafa Group and Zhuhai Huafa Properties mature or become puttable. Octus’ coverage of Zhuhai Huafa Group is HERE.
   
• Shapoorji Pallonji Group – The group launched a consent solicitation on Nov. 3 asking holders of the INR 250 billion ($2.64 billion) of nonconvertible debentures issued by its Porteast unit to let it use up to 50% of certain new debt proceeds for purposes other than repaying them, up from 25% and against a covenant that currently directs 75% to repayment of the Porteast debentures. The change would apply to new debentures issued by its Eqyizen unit, secured by the Mistry family-owned company’s 9.185% stake in Tata Sons. Octus’ coverage of Shapoorji Pallonji Group is HERE.
   
• Megha Engineering and Infrastructure – Billionaire PV Krishna Reddy is in advanced talks with Elham Credit Partners, Davidson Kempner and Varde Partners to privately place $700 million equivalent of nonconvertible debentures at a blended internal rate of return of around 17% to fund his purchase of more shares in the family company from his uncle PP Reddy, structured as three simultaneous tranches of 1.5 to three years secured by asset pools and Megha shares, with the three investors holding nearly equal exposure. Octus’ coverage of Megha Engineering and Infrastructure is HERE.
   

Courts and legislatures drove distressed emerging market outcomes this week, with procedural rulings and political standoffs shaping creditor recoveries as much as balance sheets. In Brazil, a São Paulo appeals court refused to restore enforcement stays for Braskem entities, while Oncoclínicas pushed toward plan confirmation after creditor support climbed this week. Francisco Javier Garibay Güémez of Fernández García-Naranjo Boker & Garibay SC said Mexican distressed assets often feature valid collateral and enforceable claims yet expose creditors to prolonged recovery timelines, debtor-selected proceedings and limited collection control. He said investors should weigh realistic recoveries, creditor control and execution timeframes alongside contractual priority.
 

• Senegal – The sovereign raised 80.826 billion West African CFA francs ($136.4 million) in the regional debt market on Nov. 6, its last remaining source of market financing and the one the government has committed to spare from its upcoming debt treatment operation, while a public dispute between the Finance Ministry and Parliament’s Finance and Budget Control Committee, which on Nov. 3 asked the government to withdraw the 2027 Initial Finance Law after Pastef voted down the revised 2026 budget three times in two weeks, is delaying the International Monetary Fund’s expected approval of a $2.2 billion loan program and engagement with external creditors. Octus’ coverage of Senegal is HERE.
   
• Oncoclínicas do Brasil Serviços Médicos – Creditor support for the company’s extrajudicial restructuring plan rose to 74.6% on Nov. 4 from 61.6% on Oct. 30, with supporting creditors holding about 4.3 billion Brazilian reais of the BRL 5.8 billion in total claims covered, prompting the company to petition the São Paulo Third Bankruptcy and Insolvency Court on Nov. 5 to confirm it has met the statutory threshold, after filing an updated plan on Oct. 29 with an initial consent level of 29.79%. Octus’ coverage of Oncoclínicas do Brasil Serviços Médicos is HERE.
   
• Braskem SA – São Paulo Court of Appeals judge Rômolo Russo Jr. on Nov. 5 rejected the company’s bid to restore enforcement stays for Braskem Netherlands BV and Braskem America Finance Co., ruling that an involuntary chapter 11 filing against the U.S. unit did not warrant relief, kept funding restrictions in place for Mexican subsidiary Braskem Idesa while the appeal continues and reaffirmed that Brazilian law prohibits substantive consolidation in an extrajudicial restructuring, which blocks the company from pooling assets and liabilities to tally creditor support across the group. Octus’ coverage of Braskem SA is HERE.