Technology Insights: Anthropic Files for IPO at $965B Valuation as SpaceX Targets $1.75T Listing; Verra Mobility Selloff Deepens; Kaseya Loan Slides to 78 

Verra Mobility’s selloff deepened after the Avis contract termination, with the company’s 5.5% unsecured notes declining to around 87, while Kaseya’s term loan continued its slide to 78.4, now down more than 20 points from its December tap issuance. Newfold Digital rallied further on private earnings results, and Xerox debt instruments continued their post-earnings volatility. Broader tech equity performance was strong on the week, with cybersecurity and cloud software leading as CIBR and WCLD each gained more than 12% and IGV added 8%, while AI infrastructure lagged at roughly 2% gains in AIPO shares.

In ratings actions, Moody’s Ratings downgraded Tungsten Automation and S&P Global Ratings downgraded Ivanti, while Viavi and Optiv received upgrades. On the capital markets side, Alphabet launched an $80 billion equity offering, the largest on record, to fund AI infrastructure capex, and Anthropic filed a confidential S-1 with the Securities and Exchange Commission at a $965 billion valuation after its $65 billion Series H close, while SpaceX set terms for a $1.75 trillion IPO targeting a Nasdaq listing as early as June 12. Octus also published a credit analysis on ZoomInfo’s 3.875% unsecured notes due 2029, arguing that the notes appear oversold at 867-bps spread relative to the company’s current capital structure and fundamental cushion.

Aggregated Pricing Data

Weighted-average yield and weighted-average price moves as of the morning of June 3 across select sub-investment-grade dollar-denominated bonds and loans for the tech sector are shown below:
 

The chart below tracks equity performance across broader tech, as measured by the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) and the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) for broader software. More specialized exchange-traded funds are included to track semiconductor performance through the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH), cybersecurity performance through the First Trust Nasdaq Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR), AI infrastructure performance through the Defiance AI & Power Infrastructure ETF (AIPO) and cloud software performance via the WisdomTree Cloud Computing Fund (WCLD).

Cybersecurity continued its strong rally, with CIBR up more than 12% over the past week as of this time of writing on Wednesday, June 3. WCLD, representing cloud computing performance, similarly rallied more than 12% while broader software posted a strong week to the tune of an 8% rally in IGV shares. AI infrastructure lagged the broader group on the week, albeit still up slightly, with AIPO up about 2% over the past week.
 

Largest Weekly Price Movers

Software
 

Verra Mobility’s selloff from last week intensified: The company’s 5.5% unsecured notes due 2029 declined to about 87 as of Wednesday from near-par prior to the Avis termination announcement on May 26.

Kaseya’s term loan due 2032 followed closely behind, declining about 8 points to 78.4; the private IT automation software company’s term loan is now down over 20 points from the tap issuance OID of 99.875 in December. Moody’s, in January, affirmed its B3 corporate rating on Kaseya, though it noted high pro forma leverage, the likelihood of future debt-funded acquisitions and its highlight competitive and fragmented market.

Symplr has continued to decline following earnings published on Tuesday. Houlihan is working with lenders to address the late 2027 maturities, though anticipated solutions remain undisclosed. Octus reported on May 5 that lenders signed a co-op agreement in anticipation of negotiation with the company.

Newfold Digital debt instruments continued last week’s rally on the back of the company’s private earnings results, though Octus reported on Monday that, according to sources, the company has been buying back its own debt at discounts since January, which may have provided additional fuel to the rally.

PlanView first lien loans were up almost 10 points in the latest week.

Tech Hardware and Data Centers
 

Nokia’s 6.45% unsecured notes due 2029 headlined the hardware and AI infrastructure credit decliners on the week while a group of data-center-linked credits had modest declines likely due to a slight pause in the AI-fueled data center rally as illustrated by the relatively weaker AIPO equity performance discussed above.

Xerox debt instruments rallied significantly on the week, continuing the volatility from the past few weeks after the company’s first-quarter 2026 results.
 

 

• Moody’s downgraded Project Leopard Holdings Inc., the parent of Tungsten Automation, to Caa1 from B3, with a negative outlook, citing high financial leverage of approximately 10.1x at year-end 2025, weak liquidity and refinancing risk tied to its revolver expiring July 2027 and term loans due in 2029 and 2030.

  Moody’s said that it expects breakeven free cash flow in 2026 and only approximately $30 million in 2027, leaving the company unlikely to repay revolver borrowings at maturity from internal resources. The negative outlook incorporates the potential for a distressed exchange as the company approaches upcoming maturities.
   

• S&P downgraded Ivanti Software Inc. to CCC from CCC+, with a negative outlook, citing persistent cash burn and weakening liquidity that S&P views as potentially unsustainable. Ivanti generated negative FCF of approximately $190 million in fiscal year 2025, and S&P said it expects cash burn to continue through at least 2027, with negative FCF estimated at $85 million to $95 million in FY 2026.

  The company’s $234 million liquidity cushion is viewed as less than adequate given the expected burn rate, with EBITDA interest coverage projected to remain around 1x and revenue headwinds from the SaaS transition persisting through 2027.
   

• Moody’s upgraded Viavi Solutions Inc. to Ba2 from Ba3, with a positive outlook, after an underwritten equity offering generated approximately $575 million in gross proceeds that will be used to repay its $450 million term loan. Pro forma for the transaction, leverage is projected to decline to approximately 2.7x by fiscal year-end June 2026 from over 6x for the 12 months ended March 2026, with FCF expected to scale to over $225 million in FY 2027.

  The senior unsecured notes were upgraded two notches to Ba2, reflecting their improved position in the capital structure following term loan repayment.
   

• S&P upgraded Optiv Inc. to CCC+ from D after the completion of a debt maturity extension that pushed its ABL facility, first lien term loan and second lien term loan to May 2028, August 2028 and August 2029, respectively. The transaction alleviated near-term refinancing risk but did not improve the credit profile, as PIK consent fees and a PIK coupon uplift increased total debt and interest expense.

  Leverage is expected to improve only minimally from approximately 24x in 2025, with EBITDA interest coverage projected to remain below 1x through 2027 and the negative outlook reflecting risk of a further downgrade if the company fails to address upcoming maturities ahead of them becoming current.

 

Americas

ZoomInfo: AI Displacement Risk Is Real but Likely Already Priced; Market Overcompensates at Current Spread

This week Octus published an analysis on ZoomInfo Technologies examining the company’s 3.875% unsecured notes due 2029, which have declined from approximately 95 at the start of the year to around 78 following weak first-quarter results, pushing yield to maturity to 13.36% at 867-bps spread.

The analysis argues that that level is inconsistent with the current fundamental picture: While AI displacement risk to ZoomInfo’s seat-based model is genuine and the first-quarter results confirmed that it is already registering in the greater than $100,000 ACV cohort, the business continues to generate over $200 million of annual FCF at 2.4x net leverage. Our sensitivity analysis shows that the 2029 refinancing bifurcates around the 85% to 88% net revenue retention range, roughly 200 to 500 bps below where the business sits today.

The consumption model transition launching in the third quarter is the right structural response, and the DaaS and operations segment growing over 20% on consumption pricing provides a proof of concept.

On relative value, the notes trade 472 bps wide of Clarivate’s 2029 unsecured paper despite carrying almost half the leverage and a higher Moody’s rating, a differential that is difficult to justify on current fundamentals and that anchors the constructive view developed in the piece.

Advisors to CDK Global Majority Creditor Group Go Restricted Ahead of Debt Talks

Octus reported that advisors to a majority creditor group holding more than 70% of CDK Global’s debt have gone restricted ahead of balance-sheet discussions with the company. Gibson Dunn and Houlihan Lokey represent the ad hoc majority group, while a separate minority group holding approximately $500 million in term loan exposure, represented by Cadwalader, is engaged independently. CDK is advised by Weil Gotshal and PJT Partners.

The company’s SOFR+325 bps first lien term loan B due 2029 is bid at 52.94, up from 44.82 one month ago. CDK faces ongoing litigation overhang from three active antitrust and cyberattack lawsuits following $730 million in prior settlements, with a judge recently allowing competitor Tekion’s antitrust case to proceed after denying CDK’s motion to dismiss.

Private Company Analysis

Private Company Analysis has published earnings analysis for DigiCert, CDK Global, Qlik and Symplr Software, as well as preliminary primary analysis for Network Connex. All information used is public-side.

Capital Markets Activity
 

• Elk Grove Village Property issued $900 million, upsized from $850 million, of senior secured notes due 2031 with proceeds expected to be used to repay existing, finance remaining data center construction, fund debt service reserves, fund a distribution and pay related fees. The Ba3/BB-/BB- notes had initial price whispers in the high 7% area and ultimately priced at 7.5% on June 2.
   
• Shutterfly is marketing $1.15 billion of first lien notes due 2031 with proceeds expected to be used alongside a $500 million first lien term loan and a $225 million second lien term loan to refinance existing indebtedness. Price talk for the notes is in the 12% area, and pricing is expected next Wednesday, June 10.
   
• PointClickCare Technologies launched a $500 million fungible incremental term loan B due 2031 with proceeds expected to be used alongside cash on hand to fund up to $650 million of dividends. Price talk is at SOFR+275 bps with 99 to 99.5 OID. Commitments are due early next week.
   
• Alphabet launched an $80 billion secondary equity offering, the largest on record. The multi-tranche raise consists of $15 billion in underwritten common stock, $15 billion in mandatory convertible preferred shares, a $10 billion private placement to Berkshire Hathaway, and a $40 billion at-the-market program. Proceeds will be used to fund the company’s estimated $180 billion to $190 billion in annual capital expenditures for TPU and data center infrastructure, following $85 billion in debt issuance over the past year.

 

Anthropic Files Confidential IPO Prospectus at $965B Valuation

Anthropic confidentially filed its IPO prospectus with the SEC on June 1, less than a week after closing a $65 billion Series H funding round that pushed its valuation to $965 billion. The company’s revenue run rate has grown to $47 billion, up from $10 billion in annual revenue last year.

No share count or pricing has been set, with the listing targeting an October 2026 window subject to SEC review and market conditions. Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX are all moving toward public listings, with Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley expected to be under consideration for underwriting roles across those deals.

SpaceX Sets $1.75T Valuation Target for All-Primary IPO

Following preliminary meetings with institutional investors, SpaceX communicated finalized pricing and fundraising terms to its underwriting syndicate on June 2. The entity is targeting a valuation of $1.75 trillion, inclusive of a 15% overallotment greenshoe option, by offering 555.6 million shares at a fixed price of $135 per share. The offering is structured as an all-primary issuance, meaning 100% of the gross proceeds will go directly to the corporate balance sheet to fund satellite network expansion and artificial intelligence computing infrastructure.

Existing shareholders are restricted from selling equity at the time of listing, with insider sales deferred under a staggered lockup framework until after the publication of the company’s first quarterly earnings report. Founder Elon Musk is also subject to a 366-day holding lockup on his personal shares.

Led by bookrunning managers Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, BofA Securities, Citigroup and JPMorgan, the transaction features a dual-class share structure to preserve founder voting control and includes a 30% allocation tranche designated for retail investors. The official investor roadshow is scheduled to begin today, Thursday, June 4, ahead of an anticipated Nasdaq listing under the ticker SPCX as early as June 12.