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Ukraine’s Eurobonds, Warrants Edge Higher as Zelensky Prepares for New Round of Peace Negotiations; Kyiv, EU Leaders Decline to Comment on Sweeping Concessions
Ukraine’s eurobonds and GDP warrants are continuing to rally in price today after President Volodymyr Zelensky said he will discuss the latest U.S.-led peace proposal with his U.S. counterpart President Donald Trump in the coming days.
In a Nov. 20 video recording posted on X, Zelensky said he had conducted a serious conversation with a U.S. delegation and the Ukrainian leader had also presented Kyiv’s fundamental principles for peace. Zelensky did not comment directly on the proposed concessions, saying there will be no “sharp statements” but looked ahead to “clear and honest” work with Washington and Ukraine’s European allies.
This morning, Ukraine’s 4.5% 2029 eurobond A is at 69.5 and while the mid-prices for the 2034, 2035 and 2036 A bonds are up a nudge at 56.3, 55.6 and 55, respectively. Ukraine’s 0% B bonds due in 2030 are at 53.8, the 0% 2034s are at 42.6 and the 2035 and 2036s are at 52, up two points. Ukraine’s defaulted GDP warrants are up at 90.2.
Sources told Octus that President Zelensky is very unlikely to accept the 28-point proposal, which would significantly reduce the size of Ukraine via the cessation of Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk, leave the remaining country very vulnerable to a third invasion while allowing Russia to recover financially by scrapping all sanctions against its economy.
EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa declined to comment on Washington’s latest peace plan during a press conference in Johannesburg this morning. Costa said the EU had not been briefed formally on the plan and he therefore would not comment. Commission President von der Leyen stressed that generally Ukraine must be involved in any negotiations. Both presidents said in response to questions that Europe remains committed to supporting Ukraine for as long as it takes.
Ukraine has committed to conducting a fresh assessment of its public finances and debt levels once the period of extraordinary high uncertainty ends (or at the time of the penultimate IMF program review). If Kyiv’s position is worse than that recorded in the IMF’s fourth program review in the summer of 2024, then a further treatment of external commercial claims would be required. Kyiv based its 2024 eurobond restructuring on the fourth review outlook.
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