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Private capital’s football bet just got bigger

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Private capital has European football in its sights, and this year the conversation moved from the sidelines to the main stage.

At SuperReturn in Berlin, some of private credit’s most familiar names spent as much time talking about football as about deal flow. Octus data shows Ares, Apollo, CVC and Oaktree among the top private investors in European football, and several have launched strategies built specifically around sports.

The appeal is straightforward. Football clubs are largely uncorrelated with the broader economic cycle. For large American asset managers looking to diversify away from traditional credit exposure, that makes the sport an attractive hedge rather than a passion investment.

But European football carries a risk American sports do not: relegation. Drop out of the top division and revenue can collapse overnight. Investors are responding in different ways. Some take security against parachute payments or hard assets and accept relegation risk directly. Others sidestep it altogether, investing in leagues and infrastructure rather than individual clubs.

Germany drew particular debate in Berlin. German football has deep talent and some of the most passionate fan bases in Europe, yet its clubs, with a few exceptions, have struggled to compete at the top of the European game.

Some blame the 50+1 rule, which requires fans to hold a majority stake, at least 50% plus one vote, in top-tier German clubs. Critics argue the rule locks clubs out of institutional capital and leaves them unable to compete financially with rivals in England, Spain and France. Others see the opposite: a market where credit and hybrid capital investors can find an opening.

Private capital is already moving into European football at scale. Whether the market matches the boldest projections coming out of conferences like SuperReturn is an open question. The number of investors positioning for it is not.

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