Blog Post
What private credit managers aren’t telling investors
Private credit dominated SuperReturn International in Berlin again this year. But the narrative had shifted, reshaped by AI disruption and a rise in investor redemption requests.
On panels, managers competed to downplay the disruption while reassuring investors that their own software exposure ran well below the market average.
One panelist tried to blame the reporters: “I mean if you were a private credit reporter for the last three, four years, you probably haven’t been too busy and now all of a sudden there’s more headlines to talk about. So I think there’s a little bit of a sensational aspect to it,” said one panelist who declined to be named.
As a private credit reporter, I tried not to take it personally. He had a point about some of the headlines. But signs of stress in private credit loans are building, and whatever managers say on panels, many hold more software exposure than they let on to investors.
Many speakers stressed private credit’s resilience, noting the asset class has weathered multiple stress tests since the global financial crisis and come through relatively unscathed. Mostly true.
But the focus on manager selection is telling: no one really believes everyone escapes unscathed this time. As the industry matures, the performance gap between managers will widen.
I look forward to learning who’s to blame for the negative headlines next year.
This publication has been prepared by Octus Intelligence, Inc. or one of its affiliates (collectively, "Octus") and is being provided to the recipient in connection with a subscription to one or more Octus products. Recipient’s use of the Octus platform is subject to Octus Terms of Use or the user agreement pursuant to which the recipient has access to the platform (the “Applicable Terms”). The recipient of this publication may not redistribute or republish any portion of the information contained herein other than with Octus express written consent or in accordance with the Applicable Terms. The information in this publication is for general informational purposes only and should not be construed as legal, investment, accounting or other professional advice on any subject matter or as a substitute for such advice. The recipient of this publication must comply with all applicable laws, including laws regarding the purchase and sale of securities. Octus obtains information from a wide variety of sources, which it believes to be reliable, but Octus does not make any representation, warranty, or certification as to the materiality or public availability of the information in this publication or that such information is accurate, complete, comprehensive or fit for a particular purpose. Recipients must make their own decisions about investment strategies or securities mentioned in this publication. Octus and its officers, directors, partners and employees expressly disclaim all liability relating to or arising from actions taken or not taken based on any or all of the information contained in this publication. © 2026 Octus. All rights reserved. Octus(TM) and the Octus logo are trademarks of Octus Intelligence, Inc.