Article
Cinven’s Think-Cell Sale Caught Off Guard by Software Sell-Off; 2028 TLBs Trade Down Around 10 Points
The sale of German presentation software maker Think-Cell is proving to be difficult against the backdrop of a selloff in global software stocks that is also weighing on the leveraged loan market linked to not just technology borrowers but also the broader services sector, sources told Octus.
Cinven owned the company since September 2021 so wants to sell the business and has talked about exiting it late last year, one source noted. The exact sale timing, however, had not been decided, according to sources.
The sponsor has tapped Arma Partners to help evaluate exit options for Think-Cell, including a sale that could value the firm at as much as €3 billion, Bloomberg reported in October 2025.
Think-Cell’s August 2028 term loan Bs have already gone through a round of price drop in the fourth quarter of 2025, falling from around 97 in early October to roughly 91 in December due to the disruptive AI risk, sources said. Loan prices have stabilized early this year to be spotted around 95 but plunged again in late January to currently bid at about 86.
The business is performing well and cash generative, sources said. Think-Cell’s EBITDA margin stands at 80% with mid-teens ARR growth and sticky long-term revenue driven by a loyal customer base, sources noted.
Questions loom, however, over whether Cinven will be able to achieve the valuation multiple it wants given the deepening selloff across data analytics, professional services and software companies.
The reported €3 billion valuation target is 20x Think-Cell’s EBITDA of around €150 million which is quite ambitious even without factoring in the AI risk, said one credit investor. The product that the company offers is essentially a charting tool that can suffer from an even lower barrier to entry with AI development, he added.
Credit investors are becoming increasingly wary about the company’s long-term outlook, raising questions over how it will be able to find lenders to refinance its 2028 maturity.
Think-Cell took out €60 million term loan B add-on and €40 million cash on the balance sheet for shareholder distribution last year. That followed the paydown of its €310 million PIK facility in 2024 with a €180 million Term loan B add-on and €135 million cash, which raised its leverage by more than a turn, sources said. Think-Cell’s leverage is currently at around 5x, they added.
Cinven declined to comment.
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