EARNINGS ANALYSIS: AMC CEO Believes 2026 Domestic Box Office Could Grow YoY by $500M-$1.2B; Company Announces Live Concert Experience Called Arena One at AMC

On AMC Entertainment’s call to discuss its first-quarter 2026 results, CEO Adam Aron said the company “could not be more optimistic about the entire 2026 film slate,” which he indicated could set a record post-pandemic box office total driven by “continued robust growth” in the second half of the year.

He noted that the domestic industry box office so far in 2026 is already up about $300 million year over year, and he “think[s] it is easy to forecast that the full year number for 2026 could be somewhere between $500 million and $1.2 billion” higher than 2025. This represents a $200 million increase in the upper range of his outlook provided in February of a $500 million to $1 billion year-over-year increase. Aron added that foreign language films in Europe are also doing “particularly” well and that AMC is improving its international performance in Europe.

CFO Sean Goodman noted on the call that contribution margin per patron in the first quarter was 57% higher than the first quarter of 2019, led by 67% growth domestically and 39% internationally. Goodman said that the U.S. operations have benefited from renegotiation of AMC’s screen advertising contract with National Cinemedia as well as higher food and beverage revenue per patron relative to AMC’s European theaters.

However, in the first quarter of 2026, international food and beverage revenue per patron grew 19% year over year, compared with 4% year-over-year growth domestically, although this was driven in part by currency fluctuations. Goodman added that AMC has had more competition over ticket pricing in Europe, which is starting to normalize now, as evidenced by the 13% year-over-year ticket price growth internationally (again driven in part by currency moves) versus 5% domestic growth.

Octus previously estimated that AMC would need a domestic box office of about $10 billion to generate positive free cash flow based on its current cost structure and debt burden. Goodman said on the call that AMC is “very focused on taking steps each day” to reduce the level of box office required for it to be FCF breakeven.

One way AMC is aiming to do this is through the announcement of a new product line called Arena One at AMC through which, starting this June, AMC will offer “a truly groundbreaking shared live concert experience from day one across more than 300 AMC theaters locations in 89 markets nationwide.”

Aron said on the call that Arena One at AMC will be implemented with “essentially no upfront spending by AMC,” and represents a revenue share model where AMC “will retain” a significant percentage of the admissions revenue and the food and beverage revenue that occurs in its theaters.

He noted that prices will vary by artist and market, but that he “wouldn’t be surprised to see ticket prices in the $40 to $75 range,” which is “cheap” for concerts but above movie theater levels.