Skip to content

Blog Post

Octus on Credit: Tariffs and Chapter 11 – A growing concern

Seth Brumby, Deputy Managing Editor, America

Share on X (opens in a new window) Share on Facebook (opens in a new window) Share on LinkedIn (opens in a new window)

The restructuring landscape is experiencing a notable shift as we progress through 2025. While the first half of the year saw reduced advisor mandates for Chapter 11 proceedings compared to 2024, emerging trends suggest significant activity ahead, particularly driven by tariff-related business pressures.

July 2025 marked a substantial uptick in bankruptcy filings, with daily filing rates reaching 0.64 compared to the 0.35 average maintained throughout the 18-month period from January 2024 to June 2025. This acceleration, while based on limited data, signals potential increased demand for restructuring services in the coming months.

A distinctive trend has emerged throughout 2025, with companies increasingly citing tariffs as a primary factor in their Chapter 11 filings. This pattern began with Balkan Express‘s May 1 filing and has since expanded to include several notable cases:

  • Marelli – Global automotive parts manufacturer
  • At Home Group – Home decor retailer
  • Mosaic Cos – July 2025 filing
  • IG Design Group Americas – July 2025 filing

The tariff concern extends beyond distressed situations into the broader credit markets. Recent high yield bond activity demonstrates widespread acknowledgment of tariff-related risks:

  • 65% of new high yield bond offerings (44 deals between May 14 – June 30, 2025) included tariff-related risk factors in their offering memoranda
  • This represents a significant portion of leveraged loan issuers also incorporating tariff considerations into their disclosure documents

Given the persistent nature of tariff-related business pressures and the absence of clear resolution on trade policy, the restructuring market appears positioned for increased activity through the remainder of 2025. The combination of rising Chapter 11 filings and widespread tariff concerns across the credit markets suggests robust demand for restructuring advisory services in the second half of the year.

To get these insights delivered directly to your inbox, sign up to receive Octus on Credit.

This publication has been prepared by Octus, Inc. or one of its affiliates (collectively, "Octus") and is being provided to the recipient in connection with a subscription to one or more Octus products. Recipient’s use of the Octus platform is subject to Octus Terms of Use or the user agreement pursuant to which the recipient has access to the platform (the “Applicable Terms”). The recipient of this publication may not redistribute or republish any portion of the information contained herein other than with Octus express written consent or in accordance with the Applicable Terms. The information in this publication is for general informational purposes only and should not be construed as legal, investment, accounting or other professional advice on any subject matter or as a substitute for such advice. The recipient of this publication must comply with all applicable laws, including laws regarding the purchase and sale of securities. Octus obtains information from a wide variety of sources, which it believes to be reliable, but Octus does not make any representation, warranty, or certification as to the materiality or public availability of the information in this publication or that such information is accurate, complete, comprehensive or fit for a particular purpose. Recipients must make their own decisions about investment strategies or securities mentioned in this publication. Octus and its officers, directors, partners and employees expressly disclaim all liability relating to or arising from actions taken or not taken based on any or all of the information contained in this publication. © 2025 Octus. All rights reserved. Octus(TM) and the Octus logo are trademarks of Octus Intelligence, Inc.