$3B in distressed loans. A maturity wall approaching. Private credit’s first real stress test is here.

Deal activity is up. Nonaccruals are rising. The 2021 vintage is maturing. Download Octus’ latest report to understand where private credit stands — and where the real risks and opportunities lie in 2026.

What’s inside

• Where deal flow is concentrating — and where stress is following: Healthcare led US direct lending at 19% of volume, but the sectors attracting the most capital are showing the most strain.
• The coming maturity wall and what BDC nonaccruals are already telling you: Over $3B in nonaccrual loans mature through 2027. With BDC distress climbing and the 2021 COVID vintage approaching, this report maps exactly where the pressure points are building.
• The growth mandate – AI infrastructure, jumbo deals, and the secondary market surge: Private lenders are projected to deploy $800B into data center construction over two years. Meanwhile, the secondaries market hit $20B in 2025 — on track for $50B.